Exhale in Doha

Lenta: the country's largest producer of black gold have to solve a difficult problem: how to organize a shortage of oil in the market in terms of its enormous excess to whet quotes. If the meeting in Doha is successful, the state, living on the production and sale of energy, can finally breathe a sigh of relief - their economies will have more time to calm diversification.

The key event next week - scheduled for April 17 meeting of oil-producing countries in the Qatari capital Doha. The delegations will discuss the possibility of freezing production to maintain collapsed in recent months, prices. Oversupply of oil on the world market is, according to various estimates, from 1.5 million to 2 million barrels per day.

The decision to freeze the mining can be a powerful driver for short-term growth of quotations on the oil market. Against this backdrop, prices have already grown - on Friday, April 8, the price of Brent exceeded $ 41 per barrel.

At a meeting in Doha have placed a lot of hope - in particular Russia, was badly damaged by the falling prices of hydrocarbons, it expects to achieve about nenaraschivanii production agreement. This was announced by Energy Minister Alexander Novak on 8 April.

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Now the level of oil production main producing countries is at a maximum, so the freeze or even reduction is quite possible. "The five percent reduction would be for the global economy just supersolution" - says the analyst of Raiffeisenbank Andrey Polishchuk.

But fundamental changes in the roar of the results of the meeting should not expect in Qatar. Participants may at any time withdraw from the agreement and increase the supply, experts say.

Sworn friends

The uncertainty around the summit in Doha is high in oil countries have different interests and, as a rule, serious economic problems. Also, do not trust each other.

Although it also happens that the manufacturers have demonstrated the ability to work together. A striking example - OPEC, in 1973, in unison limit the supply of oil to the US. It was a response to Washington's support for Israel during the Yom Kippur War. The result - the lack of fuel in the West.

The willingness of a wide range of oil-producing countries, not just OPEC, to coordinated actions can spur growth in oil prices to the level of 45 dollars per barrel. "But the positive outcome of the meeting does not guarantee actual compliance arrangements - individual countries can violate the quota, as it regularly occurs within OPEC", - said Vladimir Evstifeev, head of analytical management of the bank "Zenith".

"Most probably, agree in Doha:" Let us abide by production quotas "But, as it has happened many times, someone will start to slowly break the agreement and increase production!. Others look at neighbors and think: "And we are worse?" "- adds Andrey Polishchuk.

stumbling block

Representatives of Iran's OPEC should visit the April summit in Doha, but that does not mean that Iran will join the agreement. If so, then the excess oil is unlikely to decline in the global market.

Now Iran is vital to increase the production to the former, dosanktsionnyh levels, says the director of analytical department of the investment company "Veles Capital" Ivan Manaenko. But Saudi Arabia, OPEC's most influential member, has long sought to increase its market share and now obviously does not want to share with Iran.

The fundamental condition for the success of the meeting on April 17 - the consent of all countries, stressed Vladimir Evstifeev. But Iran has repeatedly said its intention to restore production levels after the removal of the US sanctions.

"Most likely, oil-producing countries do not agree immediately, but will take a break for the elimination of mutual claims, for example, Iran. Tehran can give time to recover production level, and then hold another meeting ", - says Vladimir Evstifeev.

unpredictable kingdom

How to behave in Saudi Arabia, said as hard: this is an important exporter of oil in the past two years only to increase production, and paid a hefty price for an increase in its market share and the displacement of shale producers.

Given the impact Riyadh OPEC and imposing size foreign reserves kingdom capable insist on further increasing production.

"But taking into account the budget deficit, the constant talk about the Dutch disease and the need to diversify the economy, as well as awareness of the need for a new conspiracy in order to prevent a drop of oil below $ 30, Saudi Arabia can demonstrate accommodating," - emphasizes Manaenko.

"It is possible that the then Saudi Arabia will reconsider its decision or cancel it altogether," - adds analyst Gazprombank Yevgeny Dyshlyuk.

Piano in the bushes

Freeze helps global oil industry to overcome overproduction, but apart from OPEC countries and Russia, this market is significantly influenced by the United States, and there do not want to reduce production. And with an increase in world prices will only expand their production.

"Oddly enough, but there is little talk about Canada, extracting oil from tar sands. But they are also beyond the break-even "- recalls another important player in the energy market, Ivan Manaenko of" Veles Capital ".

Be that as it may, the meeting of April 17 can not affect the price of oil. According to Andrei Polishchuk, everything will depend on the nature of the received statements. If it proves to be mild, "We'll keep production at current levels", the price will go down. If we take a strong resolution: "We will reduce production at so much per cent," it is possible a substantial increase in quotations.

"According to our feelings, the price range 40-42 dollars per barrel already implies an agreement on freezing oil with indulgences for Iran. Accordingly, the fruitless meeting will bring down the price up to 30-35 dollars. To gain a foothold above the level of 42 dollars succeed or some time after the meeting, subject to the continued decline in US production, or have the consent of Iran to make concessions, "- summarizes Manaenko.