Monday, December 4, 2017

Saudi Arabia is a clever game

Saudi Arabia is a clever game

The journalists of the newspaper Financial Times Geoff Dyer and Ed Crooks think about how cleverly playing his own game, Saudi Arabia, and that all the same costs for the drop in oil prices. This time the focus is on the division of spheres of influence of America and Saudi Arabia, in their complex political relations and on who and what will win. While a definite beneficiary - only one.



"encouraging
the fall in oil prices, Saudi Arabia
He begins an intricate game, juggling
relations with the United States. Potential
damage caused by "shale boom"
America may be compensated by geopolitical
prizes that Arabs offer
Washington.


So,
conducting jointly with the US in a new war
Iraq, Saudi authorities do
very bold steps to strengthen its
dominant position in the world
the oil market and the introduction of imbalance
in the situation of many "shale" companies
America.


At the
However, falling oil prices de facto
It means a decline in prices for US
consumers, and more - the weakening of the
Russia and Iran, and just at that moment,
when Washington is trying to
pressure on both of these countries.


Deborah
Gordon, director of the energy and
Climate Program at Carnegie
Endowment, sees
Saudi pressure on the oil price
carefully calibrated movement
that will not alienate allies
(US), but it will cause problems for competitors
and opponents (Russia and Iran). "It seems,
Saudi authorities have seen, on what
earn, - she says. - They are thin
benefit without causing inconvenience
to those who do not want their cause.. "


FROM
the global slowdown in global demand
oil and increasing American
production of "black gold" Saudi
Arabia came to the selection. She can
reduce production to
to stabilize the market, to balance
supply and demand. But instead,
apparently, she has decided to allow the price
fall: the officials of the country already
clearly expressed that they are quite satisfied
price is not 100, and $ 80 per barrel.


Graph showing the decline in Brent oil prices over the past year (on October 16, 2014). Thomson Reuters (c)




Therefore
, contrary to oil production capacity
in the US and in defiance of the doubts about the future
OPEC, Saudi Arabia reminded the world
who is dictating the price of oil, who
It is the central figure of the world
the market of "black gold".


These
price manipulations occur during
a certain stiffness in the relationship
Saudi Arabia and the United States. In the past year
These countries have been at loggerheads
because of the attempts of the Obama administration
establish a nuclear deal with Iran, which
Saudis considered as a primitive
attempts at reconciliation after years
enmity. At the same time is now Saudi
Arabia plays a key role in the coalition,
US-led anti-Islamic
militants in Iraq and Syria.


omitting
still below the price of oil, Saudi Arabia
It helps to organize certain
geopolitical situation, which
Washington will be greeted with a joyful
smile. For example, the price decline creates
further challenges to Russia
economy, which is already fairly
decimated Western sanctions. Economy
Iran, too, is wounded by low prices
oil, but here's how this situation will affect
on the course of further negotiations with the United States -
unclear. While Saudi
Arabia would like to see negotiations
failed, Tehran can go
US concessions to facilitate international
sanctions. After all, the prospect of cuts
budget due to lower oil revenues
put Iran in a difficult
a situation in which relief
sanctions will be very useful.


Europe
and China is definitely lower prices
oil only rejoice - but they, too,
are among the largest buyers
Saudi Arabia. Again, American
Consumers also receive direct
advantages, because in spite of the
shale boom, the US still remain
one of the largest oil importer
in the world.


Analyst
Citigroup's Ed Morz calculated
the price of Brent at $ 80
a barrel is equivalent to a reduction of taxes
an average of $ 600 a year for each
households in the United States. Jason Bordoff,
former official of the energy sector
in the Obama administration, and
Now the head of the Global Center
Energy Policy at Columbia
University, said: "For the US
economy and American consumers
lower oil prices - great
thing. And there will be winners and losers,
but growth will be greater than the loss. "


at
Thus, "between the US and the Saudis no shadows
conspiracy, "- said Bob Maknalli, a former
Administration official George
Bush. - "Here, everything is clean, in
unlike the situation in the 1980s, when
lower prices helped to provide
pressure on the Soviet economy, and
went the loud rumors about the agreement
Riyadh and Washington. But I will not hide,
for the United States in the current situation there are lots
enjoyable aspects. "


but
Well, let's not forget that among all
the potential benefits for America, more
Low prices can seriously affect
shale boom, which became the most
a significant turning point in the world
Energy for all decade.

Accordingly, the low prices
put in cramped conditions American
miners shale oil, and some
of them already speak about
the need to reduce their
investment in mining.
If this happens, then the next year
US oil production growth will slow,
and can even reverse the trend towards
reducing the production of "black gold"."


Translation: Booka85


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