Saturday, December 30, 2017

Oil and the ruble rebounded after the IEA data

Oil and the ruble rebounded after the IEA data

Oil and accelerate the growth of the ruble in trading on Friday after the International Energy Agency published its monthly report on the state of the energy market.

According to the IEA member countries concluded in December deal to reduce production to fulfill their obligations by 90%, by removing from the market 1.5 million barrels per day. This is higher than previously published Reuters estimate (82%) and Platts (60%).

OPEC in January cut production by 1 million barrels a day from 1.2 million agreed under quota - up to 32.06 million barrels per day.

"Some producers, including Saudi Arabia, have reduced supply by more than required. This decline was partially offset by higher rates of Libya and Nigeria, which are exempt from the reduction of production"- IEA said.

Countries outside of OPEC, joined the Vienna agreements, the reduced production of 0.5 million barrels per day, including Russia - 100 thousand barrels.

And although the oil deal to stabilize prices at the maximum for the year and a half marks, virtually all the participants in varying degrees, risk losing market share in favor of countries that are not bound, warns IEA: oil production in the United States, Canada and Brazil for the year increased by 750 thousand barrels per day. These supplies will cover almost half of the new demand, which the agency is estimated at 1.4 million barrels per day.

After the publication of the report of Brent crude oil price jumped by 1.5% within 10 minutes and to 12.10 MSK reached a maximum value c February 6 - 56.39 per barrel. Contracts for WTI to 13.32 MSK rise in price by 0.98% - to 53.51 dollars per barrel.

Oil Rally inspired buyers rubles MosBirzhe. the dollar during trading decreased by 32 kopecks - up to 58.63 rubles. The euro fell to 44 kopecks and stood at 9 kopecks from a new low for the year and a half - 62.41 rubles.

The ruble is enjoying a record for almost 2 years the inflow of currency into Russia, Rosbank analysts say. Balance of payments in January, according to the Central Bank, amounted to US $ 8.2 billion. It is 4 times more than the market is buying the Ministry of Finance, which is what makes the ruble until immune to intervention, said the chief economist at ING in Russia and CIS Dmitry Polevoy.

This is a traditional seasonal spike associated with the fall in imports, which will come to naught in the spring, warns Rosbank.


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