Thursday, December 7, 2017

How to pull the trigger of the global crisis. .

How to pull the trigger of the global crisis. (Process Technology).

Here the author, who writes on economic issues written sensible observation of occurrence of the recent economic crisis: http://rusanalit.livejournal.com/920212.html?view=23572884#t23572884

About the genesis of the crisis written gigabytes of data, but smart enough. Basically, write, or to the "right" to orient the destination, or just clever on the post.

This article compares favorably to the written brief and accurate analysis of the facts.

Data:

1. Fed in 2000-2005 keeps a very low rate

2. TSBYA in 2000-2006 keeps rates near zero

3. The US Treasury in 2002-2006 dramatically reduces the emission of 30-year securities.

4. In 2005-2006, the Fed increases the rate to 6%.

5. In 2007, the Fed sharply increased emissions of 30-year securities

6. In 2007, TSBYA twice raises to 0.75%

Actually here's the whole picture of the current crisis. I sign for it in detail.

1. Low Fed rates give rise to a whole class of mortgage borrowers who take out a loan with a floating rate tied to the Fed, the interest rate.

2. The yen was converted into the main currency of the world carry trading. Japan directs a powerful flow of gratuitous liquidity.

3. The population of Japan and Europe is aging. The savings rate in Japan is close to China and about 30% in the EU - 9%. This "long", for the most part "retirement" money, which require tools for investment appropriate urgency. Until 2002 these were superreliable 30-year government bonds in the United States. In 2002, this tool is an arbitrary decision of the US Treasury will disappear from the market, to make room for ... what? You guessed it right.

necessary retreat. was a mystery to me, which managed to build a system in which investors are willing to take the risks that it disproportionately to win - ie for 1-1,5-2% per annum not buy government bonds in the US, and mortgage securities. It turns out it was simple - to investors bought subprime future, the market just removed the main alternative - long government bonds in the United States.

And he did it by none other than the US Treasury.

It is also essential role played impersonality of money, lack of a real host, multiplied by the passion to the hired management bonus system.

Subtotal. Lined up the following system: being funded in Japan speculators hyped market subprime, speaking intermediate buyers, intermediaries, end customers in terms of disappearance of new issues of long US Treasury securities and a sharp drop in profitability on the remaining outstanding, made by pension funds and banks around the world - for mortgage securities has the same terms of circulation, as long US government bonds.

4. Fed raises. The result - a sharp rise in the cost of service mortgage loans with "floating" rate. In 2006. borrowers are still struggling to combat, in 2007 - the growing shaft of defaults, the emergence of the term "subprime" (propaganda machine hooked up), there are concerns as all of the issued mortgage-backed securities - and it is 5.5 trillion dollars. Just as a result of defaults, the market there are the first volumes seized from the borrowers of housing - the growth of housing prices in the United States stops and even shows signs of falling prices, causing the second a powerful blow to the mortgage-backed securities. After all, the lender knew that even if the concurrency the borrower can not pay your loan, then it is growing in value as an asset homes. And now the situation has changed. As we can see, raising the rate in 2006, the Fed struck coordinated with the US Treasury and TSBYA blow to the market of mortgage securities in 2007.

5. The US Treasury in 2007, increases the release of 30-year securities, thereby bringing down the market of mortgage securities. On the one hand there is an alternative to end-investors and mortgage-backed securities to the latest demand falls, the other - a significant part of the owners of mortgage-backed securities tends to replace them in its portfolio more robust US government bonds and the market poostupayut huge mortgage securities packages.

6. And here its impact does the Bank of Japan: it deprives liquidity intermediaries! The yen is going up rapidly, playing the dollar 30% - to minimize the loss carry-traders trying to get rid of assets, ceasing to buy mortgage securities on the one hand, on the other, throwing him those amounts which they have not been able to resell to end customers.

The result - a complete collapse of the mortgage securities market by coordinated efforts in time those who created it - the Fed, the US Treasury and TSBYA.

Conclusion: The financial crisis of 2007-2008. - man-made.

As you may recall, was the crisis in the US mortgage market and served as a trigger of the world global crisis.

In his later articles the author tried to explain why it was necessary to arrange crisis and swam. The best thing he could assume - Republicans staged crisis to podnasrat Democrats. Actually, not staged, and his manipulations were able to push it to the Democrats' rule.

Well, podnasrat rivals by throwing them hot potato is never harmful. But it is the uppermost layer of intrigue. There are also deeper layers.

These layers dug another economist: http://paidiev.livejournal.com/330091.html explained the objectives of the organizers of the crisis from a position of "Who benefits". But everything is not. The bottom is not got to the bottom:

There are two obvious payoff:

1. Small gesheft. US investment banks on such operations have earned ten times more than in operations with Thresher bond (MDA, "small gesheft"Two orders of magnitude greater than all the whole Russian banking system). (Though small, though large gesheft these characters are not interested in. What is "gesheft"? This buy-sell. Why do those who "prints" world currency? Their goal - the global stability of the world economy, from which they live).

2. Large gesheft. The operation was the destruction of a huge mass of derivatives (that is: the destruction direvativov - virtual assets, hindering the economy main positive outcome of the crisis!) Replaces the dollar in international settlements. And they must quickly than replaced. Naturally dollar, and in the most preferably form credible. As a result, the world faces a shortage of dollars. And the Fed will save the world from this disaster.

And this prevents the game only the existence of the ECB, the euro, the second center. And not only because he can "otest" part of the emission benefits, but in general to break the game, albeit unwittingly. For tens of millions of people are now painfully seeking ways to save their savings. If they lomanut, no agreements of central banks is not anything damp.

That's right. Just need to ask another child's question: why?

Why it is necessary to strengthen the dollar price of the economic crisis?

On this question the author is not responsible.

Big mistake to consider the US dollar currency, and the dollar economy - the US economy. And explains all the manipulations with the dollar interests of American imperialism.

Modern dollar is not an American phenomenon (and never was), and part of the world of the global economy. And the scope of the dollar economy is not limited to US territory, and covers the whole world. And it is not the US dollar are manipulated to their advantage, and more serious global financial structure.

That is in the interests of these structures and this crisis has been arranged. Or rather in the interest of the global economy. (As understood by the main owners and beneficiaries of the global economy). Like all previous crises. In contrast to that of the current under the control of the organizers has not yet emerged.

Write about it for a long time, and it is not necessary: ​​about this phenomenon, I already wrote. I began in the article, "The Political Economy of the global financial crisis and the implications for investors."I continue to develop to the best of their forces in the tag" political economy "in his LiveJournal.

Back and send interested reader.

Dislammer: there mnogabukav. Not for the feeble mind.


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