Results and forecasts.
From Sergey Egishyants review:
Greek business is the same as usual - after a long
otnekivany Athenian authorities finally presented a new plan for reform: but
closer examination it exactly coincided with the same - only to tell others
words and more vague expressions; EU head wryly - and began
hinting at the fact that Greece's exit from the eurozone would not be that big
disaster: really cute. Agency S P in response downgraded Greece; it also
Ireland has raised the rating.
...
Next week the US Federal Reserve meets - and as long as the experts
are assessing the probability of starting the tightening cycle in September (and if so,
it must be some kind of instructions or in the text of the June memorandum, or
in an accompanying press conference, Janet Yellen), in the case unexpectedly intervened
IMF sharply lowered its forecast for economic growth in the United States, he called for the Fed
to refrain from raising rates at least until the first half of next year -
than analysts plunged in deep thought; deeper they began to meditate
after a similar step, the World Bank - that we'll see that in fact
Central Bank decides the largest in the world. The next meeting (on Monday) and will hold
The Bank of Russia - the market is waiting for a new reduction of the base interest: most likely, more
by 1.0% to 11.5% - steady decline of inflation in recent months may have caused, and
more decisive steps, but our Central Bank to them, alas, is not inclined.
...
The dollar retreated from more major competitors: even the pound,
previously stood on the site, eventually grew. The main beneficiary was the yen,
baseman rebounded immediately by 3% after a short speech the head of the Bank of Japan
Harusiko Kuroda, who criticized a little too peppy die-off of native
currency; then intervened Economy Minister Akira Amari - who said that
market "misunderstood" central bankers and the yen to rise not from what: all in
the best traditions of the era when the Central Bank of Tokyo forex juggled as he wanted.
The New Zealand dollar has fallen to a 5-year low after rate cuts
native of the Central Bank. Ruble in part to make up for past failures - the good oil again
He began to hint at a desire to rise in price; the current levels of the Russian currency,
apparently, in general satisfied with the government, so in the near future special measures
against this trend is not going to take one.
...
In Australia, the reduction of the base rate has caused violent fluctuations
Sentiment indexes: they jumped, fell in June in May. Business confidence
NAB in late spring has reached a 9-month peak - though the mining sector submits
more and more audible distress signals (Chinese demand blown away - and not without it
growing coconut); similar trends and consumer sentiment from Westpac - in May
+ 6.4% -6.9% in June. Ranges and the labor market - the failure in April, the rise in May,
although it is mainly concentrated in part-time employment. always just
swelling of the mortgage, especially speculative ("investment"): Amount
It is growing by an average of 4-5% per month.
...
U.S. stored employment differences between Labor and
Fed: the first after a spectacular general report more pleased and record high
the number of vacancies (JOLTS); but the second continues to produce plain
the value of the index of labor market conditions - and although he returned to plus after two months
minus its average of the last 12 months, the worst in 2 years, and if not
happen rapid growth, it will soon have a 5-year bottom. consumer sentiment,
according to the University of Michigan in the summer we have improved significantly; wholesale
sales finally overtook reserves - but it's April data, distorted Easter:
wait for the May - the more that commercial sales are not shown, even this
seasonal mini-surge, and purchasing networks of retailers are still weak.
Retail in May confirmed "curvature" shtatovskih statistics - showing
+ 1.2% in the month, but there are volatile components (cars, gasoline and
Materials), are not taken into account the prices (inflation and distortion officialdom) and growth
population: if all this is taken into account, the actual net sales shower
give -0.1% after 0.0% in April - feel the difference!
|
http://www.itinvest.ru/analytics/reviews/world-markets/8769/
News next week.
The coming week will be rich in events:

The main
event will be the Fed meeting on interest rates. Judging by the manipulation
statistics, more likely rhetoric in favor of raising interest rates
Fed than keeping them at a minimum.
Gold.

While the course is in a downward trend. obvious
signs for long-term support for a break-down yet. Same,
as there are no signs of a reversal of the long-term support upwards. rather
all the gold will fluctuate within the dollar trend.
Euro.

The euro has a high volatility due to the Greek debt. It forms
two waves of trend continuation. May break up, may bounce in the same manner
like last time. Who has a great influence news background, so the probability of
predict the breakdown is now useless.
During the week, there was a small model 3w down
the direction of the trend of the previous day:

Lb.

While the pound grows. The medium model no.
During the week, there was a small model 3w up:

Australian dollar.

Formed a small range of 220 points. Perhaps direction
breakdown will determine the reaction to the Fed meeting and the general trend in the dollar.
Break down, followed by the breakdown of long-term support level can
lead to the formation of long-term downtrend.
The New Zealand dollar.

While in the downward trend.
Canadian dollar.

The purpose of the breakdown of small range are not fulfilled. Stop pulled in
zero. While not rule out a further decline.
Yen.
Since the yen is now has a dependency on the Nikkei, her movements were due to
news from the stock markets. First, the IMF has given information to reduce
stock market indices:

Nikkei on the news worked a small range of down:

Then, Japanese officials have added news in favor of reducing the
course. But since QE BOJ is still here and willing to buy Nikkei
virtually guaranteed profit too, have not gone away, the yen fell and
wring out:

I still stand by my previous opinion about the situation with
the stock market. If the Fed will hint at raising interest rates to fall and will overcome all
stock indexes. Against the background of such news the yen may fall at even stronger.
So I stop do not change, I will watch.
Oil.


Oil may hang in a range. While there is no explicit signals
either to continue the upward trend, either in favor of a good mood down.
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