USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, AUD: Forecast for next week - Morgan Stanley

USD: The dollar depending on the data. Uptrend ..

We expect that the USD will continue the strong trend, but recognize that beyond the wage data disappointed. Retail sales were softer than expected. Our forecast for Q1 GDP has consistently revised downward over the last six weeks, and currently stands at 1.2%. Given the large movement of the dollar since the beginning of the year, it creates the possibility for a pullback, but given the long-term growth prospects, does not change our view of the medium-term.

EUR: remains bearish. Downtrend.

We maintain our bearish outlook, and we would like to use for selling opportunities. The unresolved Greek situation means that the euro is beginning to attract a risk reduction, our goal 0.90 for EURUSD pair at the end of the year in the spotlight. We believe that the debt load of Community and non-EMU corporations have relatively light EUR position, opening the way for further decline.

JPY: bright picture: Neutral.

The yen was the best of currency crosses on last week, and we expect that this can continue. The Japanese economy is beginning to show signs of reflation, the actions of the Bank of Japan may be limited. Recent GDP data were weak, but largely because of the stock. In GPIF (pension) redistribution largely, so that the outflow can be lower. We like to buy JPY on the crosses.

GBP: support on the crosses. Neutral.

EURGBP has reached new lows, and we expect this trend to continue, GBP is supported on the crosses. Nevertheless, we remain bearish on the GBP against the US dollar. These began to unfold, industrial production is weak, and the retail sector urezan.Politicheskie risks remain before and after the May elections, which will likely keep GBPUSD under pressure sellers. We are dedicated to 1.47 in short positions and will watch the performance of the bank of England.

AUD: Enjoying the RBA. Downtrend.

We expect that the Australian dollar will weaken in the medium term, adhere to "bear" position, but recognize that if the strength of the USD is experiencing some weakening, then there may be scope for correction. RBA can set a peaceful tone, and the markets will be watching closely to see whether appropriate 50bp next year.

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