Opinion: and yet Grexit happen

Wolfgang Myunhau, a columnist for one of the leading economic publications of the world doubts that Greece will remain in the euro zone. Too deep systemic damage to its economy. Too standard action Tsipras, despite its unconventional rhetoric again. Everything happens very much "too".

Alexis
Tsipras was not supposed to take Janis
Yanis Varoufakis to a post of minister
finance - or, if taken, it should have
continue to obey him. However, instead of
of the Greek Prime Minister has chosen the worst
option of all. he followed
advice Yanis Varoufakis until last week.
But Tsipras made a critical error,
rejecting his plan to the Minister
the critical moment, when they were closed
the country's banks: Yanis Varoufakis offered
immediately introduce a parallel currency
- IOUs issued
Greek government and nominated
In Euro. Parallel currency allowed
Greeks to carry out their regular
cash payments when cash withdrawals
60 Euro per day has been limited. common
economic collapse could be
to avoid.

But
Tsipras did not go to it, nor any
"B" another plan. Instead, he
I capitulated. At one point he even
I lost the possibility of relatively
safe exit from the eurozone.

So
the same as its predecessors, Tsipras
"I am blown away" finish the job next
"The deal to save." All this carries
imagine exactly the same fundamental
the problem that the work of former Greek
authorities. This suggests that
Grexit remains the most
likely the final result
(At what else the government).

there is
Three main options, which can
have launched the process of breaking up Greece
with the single currency area.

• First
  - is the possibility that the transaction
  will not be able to conclude. After all, if
  look carefully, all up to what
  agreed last week - it
  misty "the beginning of negotiations" and
  a small amount of intermediate
  financing. The deal could be derailed:
  its key players set very
  skeptical. Wolfgang Schäuble, the Minister
  German Finance declares that it is ready
  pull out from under the table a proposal for
  Grexit'e in
  any moment. Tsipras last week
  I had already denounced several
  points of the agreement. IMF says
  figures do not add up, and that representatives of
  International Monetary Fund's nothing
  do not sign, if European lenders
  agree to debt relief
  Greece (in other words - to forgive
  a significant part of the debt).
  

  
  

  Germans
  They refuse to discuss anything on
  about this, referring to the rules of
  that the eurozone countries are not allowed
  declare a default. From a legal point
  of these rules, to put it mildly, have
  weak force, but the goal is clear the Germans:
  to outline the new "red lines" in
  negotiations.
  

  
  

  In the end,
  Finally, there is a possibility that in the end
  Mr Schäuble result evades
  deal, but do it wisely, not on the forehead:
  he just debt relief
  a little less than you need, and from Greece will be
  require little more austerity
  budget than the one can bear.
  

  
  

• Second
  option Grexit,
  more likely: the parties reach
  agreement, but then, in the process of
  implementation, the program will fail.
  The Athens government may even
  faithfully implement all the measures required
  creditors, but the economy will
  no longer able to recover, and
  debt to achieve the objectives will be more difficult,
  than all the Peloponnese to move to Mars.
  

  
  

  Interesting,
  that Tsipras has already agreed last
  week, that if such a situation arises,
  it will toughen austerity measures. So that
  if in the future economy for no
  a sudden magically starts
  behave differently than before, the Greeks
  will remain trapped in a vicious
  range for decades.
  Realizing this, Tsipras or his successor
  can admit defeat, and select
  Grexit in
  as the least painful option.
  In addition, to expel Greece from the Eurozone
  one may want to creditors.
  

  
  

• The third
  script - the power, through an uprising.
  Let us recall another Donald last week
  Tusk, President of the European Council,
  He hinted at this in his interview
  The Financial Times, when
  He said he felt "something revolutionary"
  in the air. It was not a figure of speech.
  No wonder not that
  that three years later Grexit
  It will become the banner of the Greek
  revolution.

  
  

Now Greece
still far from the boiling point, even though
8 years of unending recession. Polls
Public opinion continues to
show that the majority of citizens
the country is still in favor of retaining
the euro as its currency. In real
life people choose between a small
a number of policy options and
choose, in fact, "the best among the worst"
at least some alternative. They
We vote for Tsipras and Syriza
because the other party
We did not find the strength to promise Greece
independence. Syriza
I promised but not able
to fulfill its promise. It means
The only thing the Greeks are no more
democratic choice.

can
Tsipras is now to prevent the catastrophe?
Call early elections in the autumn, he
can win them, and then some
time to exhume the idea Yanis Varoufakis
a parallel currency. But I think that
this idea was finally dead. To me
it seems that Tsipras will again
beautiful with a large political campaign
the number of "protivokreditornoy"
rhetoric, but then suddenly agree
all claims of creditors - and will launch
the program of the Drama
overthrow.